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For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to adopt a firm position on the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering statements of "significant consequences" last August should Putin continued blocking ceasefire talks, he finally enacted substantial restrictions on the Russian primary petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously hindered the Russian leader's ability to support his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, with his latest comprehensive peace proposal for the conflict, which was drafted by US and Russian diplomats excluding Ukraine's or EU participation, Trump has seemingly reverted to his favorable to Russia position.

Benefiting Military Action

The former president's proposal would effectively favor the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while putting the country's democratic system in peril. Despite ringing statements that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the plan actually weaken that same independence. Seen as a Russian ideal would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his corporate experience, Trump persists to view the war as a simple land disagreement, implying handing Russia a portion of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the leader. But, Russia's military campaign is not merely about controlling a charred swath of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear goal to destroy it so it stops functions as an enticing example for the Russia's population of the accountable government that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule withholds them.

Territorial Concessions

While freezing in status the presently split regions of these areas, Trump's initiative would force the nation to abandon the entire Donetsk region. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in over a ten years of conflict, this surrender would render Ukrainian defensive positions critically compromised.

The area is the location of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that represent a critical obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, providing Putin a open way to Kyiv in case he later choose to renew the war.

Defense Reductions

Furthermore, in a action that would enable renewed fighting simpler for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to cut the numbers of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 troops to a limit of 600,000. Notably, Trump's proposal places no similar restrictions on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's attempts to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected government as extremists, Trump's proposal declares: "All radical doctrine and activities must be condemned and banned." Apparently to underscore this point, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, Trump places no condition that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

Admittedly, the proposal includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "attack bordering nations" and to "incorporate in law its policy of peaceful relations towards the EU and Ukraine". However taking into account that Putin has breached equivalent agreements in the previous instances – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a handback of captured land in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – why should anyone believe this commitment this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international defense commitments. Although the initiative promises a "immediate coordinated military response" if Russia renew its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the specifics vary from unclear to concerning. The proposal would not just prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the reassurance force, presumptively led by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Putin from rebuilding his diminished troops, restocking, and resuming aggression.

World Reaction

A separate side agreement reportedly would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any later "serious, deliberate, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the allied countries." That suggests a defense action. But different from a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best deterrent against future Russian aggression – the success of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to react with force to Russia's attacks, something they have {not